Prediction Markets Hub
Prediction Markets Hub
Real-Time Event Contracts & Implied Probabilities
Real-Time Event Contracts & Implied Probabilities
Prediction Markets, Priced in Real Time
A prediction market lets you trade a position on a real-world outcome — yes or no — rather than backing a price at fixed odds. This hub tracks how those markets work, how they're regulated, and where OddsMint's covered operators, including Matchbook and easyBet, sit within that framework. Updated as the space develops.
The crowd signals a 59% implied probability of an announcement.
The crowd signals a 41% chance the timeline slides further into 2027.
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The essentials
How pricing works
Contracts trade between 0 and 100. The price is the market's implied probability — a contract at 64 reflects roughly 64% confidence the event resolves YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives, and settle at 100 or 0 when the outcome is known.
In betting terms, a 64¢ contract behaves exactly like backing a 1.56 decimal price (or –178 American moneyline), but with the added flexibility to sell your position mid-match if the probability drops.
Markets to watch
The categories most commonly traded once a market opens on a covered exchange:
How is this different from fixed-odds betting?
Fixed-odds betting locks in a price at the moment you bet. A prediction market contract can be bought or sold at any point before settlement, and its price moves with the market's shifting view of the outcome.
What happens when the event resolves?
When a market concludes, the winning contract resolves to a fixed value of 100¢ ($1.00), and the losing contract settles at 0¢. Your payout is calculated by multiplying the number of shares you hold by the 100¢ settlement price, minus any minor exchange commission fees.
Is this regulated the same way as sports betting?
In the UK, yes — if you trade through a platform holding a UKGC betting intermediary licence (like Matchbook or easyBet). These platforms process event contracts legally as peer-to-peer wagering markets. However, financial markets (like trading on interest rates or inflation indices) fall under the jurisdiction of the FCA or EU's ESMA, which treat them as binary options and restrict retail access.
Can I lose more money than I put into a contract?
No. Unlike traditional financial short-selling or margin trading, your risk in a prediction market is strictly capped. The maximum amount you can lose is the exact price you paid to buy your shares. There are no margin calls or debt liabilities.
What is the difference between "Buying NO" and "Short Selling"?
In a prediction market, if you think an event will not happen, you do not need to short sell a position. You simply buy the "NO" contract. If the event fails to happen, the "NO" contract settles at 100¢, guaranteeing your payout. This two-sided market mechanic keeps trading simple and liquid.
Why do prediction market prices fluctuate before an event starts?
Prices act as a real-time aggregate of global public information. Volatility is driven by breaking news, shifting polling data, large institutional volume trades, or sudden macroeconomic shifts. Traders often exploit these early swings to buy contracts low and sell them high well before final settlement.
Live market pricing from Matchbook and easyBet is on the way
New to prediction markets?
Start with the reference piece on how these markets work and how trading them differs from traditional betting.
Trading Partners
Welcome Offer
- Join easyBet with bonus code YES30
- Bet and settle £20 on any Predictions Market at max odds of 80%
- Receive your free bets once qualified
- 4 × £5 Free Bets on any Prediction Market
- 1 × £10 Free Bet for the easyBet Exchange
OddsMint is an affiliate and may earn commission from operators listed on this page. This does not affect the pricing or availability shown. 18+. Please trade and gamble responsibly.
Responsible Gambling
Betting should always be enjoyable. With multiple game titles streaming simultaneously across consecutive weeks, it’s easy to over-bet. Set a clear tournament bankroll limit and stick to it.
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If you ever feel your betting is getting out of control, free confidential support is available:
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International: Gamblers Anonymous – gamblersanonymous.org
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