Tuesday 28 April: PSG vs Bayern Munich — Parc des Princes, Paris (21:00 CET)
Wednesday 29 April: Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal — Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid (21:00 CET)
Four teams. Two ties. One final in Budapest on 30 May. The Champions League semi-finals deliver two matches that couldn’t be more thematically different — the best attack in the world against the defending champions, and the best defence in the tournament against the most tactical side in it. Here’s everything you need to bet on both first legs, including insights on champions league semi finals betting.
Tuesday 28 April: PSG vs Bayern Munich — Parc des Princes
The Context
This is the tie of the tournament. Both clubs are so dominant domestically that commentators have called this the real final. PSG rolled through Liverpool 4-0 on aggregate in the quarter-finals, while Bayern navigated past Real Madrid with a 6-4 aggregate win. The semi-final brings together the two highest-scoring teams in this season’s competition — PSG averaging 2.7 goals per match, Bayern an extraordinary 3.2 per game.
Bayern have won each of their last five Champions League games against PSG — the longest winning streak any team has achieved against them in major European competition. But PSG are the defending champions and Luis Enrique’s side have looked increasingly dangerous as the knockout rounds have progressed.
The Teams
PSG arrive in outstanding domestic form — they come into this contest having suffered only one defeat in their last nine matches, with a Ligue 1 title now looking a formality. Kvaratskhelia has been their standout performer, recording 10 goal contributions in his last 10 UCL games. The Parc des Princes on a big European night is one of the most intense atmospheres in club football.
Bayern clinched the Bundesliga with four games to spare and arrive with frightening attacking depth. Harry Kane has scored 50 goals this season. Michael Olise has 18 goals and 25 assists. Luis Díaz has 24 goals and 15 assists. Kane has scored in each of his last four knockout stage matches. Serge Gnabry and Raphaël Guerreiro are absent, but Jamal Musiala has scored or assisted in six consecutive matches.
Betting Angles
Champions League Semi Finals Betting Insights
Over 2.5 Goals — the standout selection. Eleven of Bayern’s last twelve UCL games have produced at least three goals. PSG have scored 2+ times in each of their last eight knockout stage games. Both teams’ attacking quality makes a low-scoring game almost implausible. Over 2.5 is the structural bet for this fixture.
Both Teams to Score — equally compelling. Neither side has a clean-sheet record against elite European opposition and both have the attacking quality to hurt the other. BTTS is the safer version of the same thesis.
Bayern to score first (~2.05). Bayern have developed a habit of striking first in recent meetings with PSG, scoring the opening goal in five of their last six matches against them. Worth considering as a standalone selection or within a same-game multi.
Kvaratskhelia anytime scorer. The Georgian has been PSG’s most dangerous player and is fully motivated in front of the Parc des Princes crowd. Value selection if available at reasonable odds.
| Market | Selection | Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | Both teams score freely — 11 of Bayern’s last 12 UCL games over 2.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | Neither side has defensive solidity against elite opposition |
| First goalscorer team | Bayern | Scored first in 5 of last 6 vs PSG |
| Anytime scorer | Kvaratskhelia | 10 goal contributions in last 10 UCL matches |
Wednesday 29 April: Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal — Riyadh Air Metropolitano
The Context
The tactical masterclass tie. Arsenal have given up just 38 goals in 54 matches in all competitions and have outscored opponents 27-5 in 12 unbeaten Champions League matches. They thrashed Atlético 4-0 at the Emirates in the league phase in October. No one expected Atlético Madrid to be La Liga’s final remaining squad in Champions League play — but here they are.
The problem for Arsenal is form and fitness. Arsenal travel without Bukayo Saka (Achilles), Martin Ødegaard (knee), Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori. Their Premier League lead over Manchester City has dwindled to three points with City having a game in hand. The psychological pressure on Mikel Arteta’s side is considerable.
The Teams
Atlético Madrid are all-in on the Champions League. They have nothing left to compete for in La Liga, meaning all of their attention is set on this semi-final. Julián Álvarez is their key threat — nine goals and four assists in 13 Champions League appearances this season. Since adding Ademola Lookman in January, Atlético have opened a new level in their attack. Antoine Griezmann, departing at the end of the season, is highly motivated for a final farewell on the biggest stage.
Arsenal remain the structurally superior team on the numbers. Their defensive record is exceptional and Viktor Gyökeres leads the attack with genuine Champions League pedigree. But Atlético’s defensive lineup has injury concerns of its own — José María Giménez and David Hancko remain out, meaning a Le Normand-Pubill central pairing that is unfamiliar territory.
Betting Angles
Under 2.5 Goals — the market consensus. A high-stakes game between two tactically cautious coaches makes under 2.5 the structural selection. Simeone will set up to be hard to break down in the first leg, and Arsenal without Saka and Ødegaard will be less creative than at full strength. The goals market is pricing this at -150 for Under 2.5 — that reflects genuine expectation rather than the market being tight.
Draw — live option. Prediction markets give the draw a 30% probability — comparable to both match winner options. A first-leg draw at the Metropolitano would be an acceptable result for Arsenal heading back to the Emirates. Available around 3.32 and worth a small position.
Atlético to qualify — value at 13/8. Arsenal are 1/2 favourites to qualify overall, with Atlético at 13/8. The Atlético price reflects their status as the more tactical, home-first side in this tie. If they win or draw the first leg, the second leg at the Emirates becomes a genuine battle. Their 13/8 qualification price has value given Arsenal’s injury situation.
| Market | Selection | Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | Simeone first leg setup; Arsenal depleted going forward |
| Match result | Draw (~3.32) | 30% probability priced fairly; fine first leg result for both |
| To qualify | Atlético (13/8) | Value given Arsenal injuries and Simeone’s two-leg expertise |
| Anytime scorer | Julián Álvarez | 9 UCL goals this season; leading scorer for either side in this tie |
Final Preview
In the outright tournament betting, Bayern are 7/4 favourites, Arsenal 9/4, PSG 5/2, and Atlético the 7/1 outsiders. The final is on 30 May at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest.
Both semi-finals are finely balanced — which makes the betting markets more interesting than if one side were dominant. The first legs on Tuesday and Wednesday will set the tone for what promises to be a memorable conclusion to the 2025-26 Champions League.
Where to Bet on the Champions League Semi-Finals
For Champions League markets including Asian handicap, both teams to score, first goalscorer and in-play betting on both semi-finals, compare prices before kick-off.
See Champions League semi-final odds at GGBet →
For our full Asian handicap guide — the best value market for Champions League matches — see our Asian Handicap Betting Guide.
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